Baseball Esoterica

November 11, 2005

The Great and the Ugly II - Range Rovers

Now let's look at the runs these guys surrendered this year. First here's where their ERA's wandered in 2005.

Season
ERA Range
Post-April
ERA Range
Lima 6.08 - 15.00 6.40 - 8.39
Milton 4.86 - 7.97 5.79 - 7.97
Clemens 0.32 - 1.89 1.10 - 1.89
Carpenter 1.29 - 7.84 2.21 - 4.24
    Here's a timeline of their season's progress. (Click to enlarge)


    • Yes, Clemens' ERA really never rose above 1.89 all season. It's unbelievable that he never even challenged that "2.00" line until very late in the season. Wonder if that's a record.
    • And, yes, Lima's ERA really never fell below 6.08 all season. It's unbelievable that he never really challenged that "6.00" line. That is definitely a record. It was as high as 8.39 twelve starts into the season on June 4.
    • Milton at least had a decent start. Between April 10 and 21, he actually had a better ERA than Carpenter!
    • Carpenter's ERA didn't stay below four until May 23, largely because of a disasterous three-inning eight-run start in April 10. If it weren't for that, he'd have been dipping below three at that point.
    • Oddly, all four pitchers displayed very similar patterns after the Break, steadily improving, and then fininshing poorly.
    Here's the earned runs (bottom axis) given up per start.






    Here's another way to look at it:

    0-1 2-4 5+
    Lima 4 14 14
    Milton 7 14 13
    Clemens 20 10 2
    Carpenter 14 15 4
    Some "wows" here.

    Lima allowed five of more runs 14 times, and Milton 13 times! Considering their average start was just over five innings, that is truly tragic. And, unsurprisingly, there was no shortage of "disaster starts"--those in which the pitcher allows more runs than innings pitched. Milton had 13 of them, an astonishing 38% of his starts. Lima wasn't far behind with 11 (34%). Both pitchers started seven games in which the opposing team finished with at least ten runs. I suppose there were money and reputation considerations, but it's hard to figure how you could keep sending these guys out there.

    Milton was the most Jeckyll and Hyde of the four, surrendering at least six runs ten times, but only allowing zero or one run seven times. Clemens was the most consistant. He didn't allow six runs in a start all season, and gave up only zero or one an amazing 63% of the time (20 of 32). In fact, he only gave up more than two runs five times all season! Now that's damn good.

    Next up, the rest.

    Extra Esoterica
    I meant to mention this in my last post when I discussed innings pitched. As you may know, Mark Buerhle ended a streak of 49 consecutive games of pitching at least six innings this past year. Well, Lima had the longest "non-Buerhle" streak of the four, and probably MLB when he went eight straight starts pitchingfewer than six between May 1 and June 9. All told, he went fewer than six in 21 of his 32 starts, as opposed to three of 33 for Carpenter.

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